Tuesday 19 May 2009

It's Squeeky Bum Time


The final weekend of the Premier League season is upon us and with the Title race concluded, after Manchester United picked up the point they needed to clinch the title at home to Arsenal on Saturday, all the worlds attention now turns to the bottom of the league and who is going to plummet to the Championship next season. 

West Bromwich Albion lost their battle against the drop, despite a spirited comeback towards the end of the season, with the trap door being opened by Steven Gerrard and Dirk Kuyt, resigning them to another yo-yo season back towards the Championship. 

The other two places, though, are still up for grabs, although this is not a prize that anyone in football wants, and with four teams still left in the running for the drop we're now going to look ahead to this weekends fixtures and see who is most likely to avoid the drop and who is the most likely to join the likes of Peterborough and Plymouth in the Championship next season. 

Middlesbrough
Final Day Fixture: Away vs West Ham United
Middlesbrough, for all intense and purposes, need a miracle. They currently sit second bottom of the league, three points from safety, with a worse goal difference than Hull's, who currently are sitting pretty in the coveted 17th position. 

Boro's away form this season has also been, well, pretty poor, but they can live off the memory of their FA Cup win at Upton Park earlier this year, when Stewart Downing finally figured out how to hit the back of the net. 

Downing though hasn't scored in the league this season, which has been one of the many disappointing factors in Boro's season. Their top goalscorer is Sanli Tuncay, who has six goals to his name, and the club as a whole have only managed to score 27 goals all season, which, by any ones standards, is a poor return. 

West Ham, were fighting for 7th place in the league, which brings a Europa League place for next season, but with back to back defeats by Liverpool and Everton they now cannot attain that place and effectively have nothing to play for, but on the final day of the season in front of their home crowd you would expect them to want to put on a performance. 

Boro will be going for it, they have no other choice, needing a five goal swing to have any chance of staying up, but I think that Gareth Southgate and his young team are going to be counting the cost of not scoring enough goals and drop out of the Premier League for the first time in 10 years. 

Result: West Ham United 1 vs 1 Middlesbrough
Prediction: Relegation

Newcastle United
Final Day Fixture: Away vs Aston Villa
What on earth has happened to Newcastle United?! Every week they come out and something inside of me thinks that they have a good enough team to win a fair few matches in the Premier League, but week in week out they seem to do the complete opposite. 

Everyone, including me, begrudgingly thought that after their massive win against Middlesbrough last week that they would go on to beat Fulham, who's away record in recent years has been pretty below standard, and steer themselves clear of the pack, so like every single other presumption I've had about Newcastle this year, they went and lost.

Newcastle can, though, go into the last game feeling pretty confident about staying up because of two reasons; One being that they are playing a Villa side, who once dreamt of Champions League participation next season and within a few short weeks now find themselves fighting to keep 5th place ahead of Everton. With just one win in 14 matches, Newcastle have to feel that they have a chance of getting something out of the game on Sunday. With a better goal difference than Hull, a point may be all that they require to stave off relegation; Reason number two for being confident is the fact that Hull host the Champions on Sunday, not the best team you would want to be playing on the final day, when you really, really, need a result. 

I think though that even a result at Villa isn't going to be enough for Newcastle, and I'll explain in a moment why not when I discuss Hull's chances, but I think this one is going to be another draw, but not enough to pull Newcastle away from the Championship. 

Result: Aston Villa 2 vs 2 Newcastle United
Prediction: Relegation

Hull City
Final Day Fixture: Home vs Manchester United
Now, many Hull fans will have read at the beginning of the season who they were to be facing on the final day of their first Premier League season and probably took a sharp intake of breath, but last weeks point against Bolton Wanderers wasn't the only thing that Hull fans would have been celebrating last week, but the fact that Manchester United sowed up the Premier League title would have been a huge relief for Hull fans. 

Three days after the game against Hull, Manchester United travel to Rome to face Barcelona in the Champions League final, and it doesn't take a brain surgeon to realise what the priority is going to be, come Sunday. 

Manchester United's squad, though, has so much depth that Hull will still have a lot to deal with. Unfortunately, even for me, a Manchester United fan, I cant begin to fathom who would be the ideal starting 11 for Manchester United, so picking a second string is difficult in itself, but what is for sure is that Sir Alex is capable of picking two teams and you can bet your life on the likes of Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov, Vidic, Van Der Sar and the like, not being in the team come 4.00pm at the KC Stadium. 

Hull showed a lot of grit and fight to come back against Bolton last weekend and looked the most likely to get the winner, and if it wasn't for another superb performance by Bolton goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen then Hull would of been all but safe by now. 

With the home crowd behind them, and the tantalising prospect of facing up against the newly crowned champions of England, I think that that and the fact that it will almost certainly be Manchester United's second string will be just enough to see Hull over the finishing line. 

Result: Hull City 1 vs 0 Manchester United
Prediction: Safety

Sunderland
Final Day Fixture: Home vs Chelsea
Following the departure of Roy Keane in the middle part of the season, few would have predicted that Sunderland would still find themselves where they are currently after the good start Ricky Sbragia had to his managerial career at the Stadium of Light, but after defeat to Portsmouth on Monday night they still find themselves not quite safe, and have the terrifying prospect of Chelsea on Sunday to contend with. 

Them, like Middlesbrough, have been struggling to score goals this season, not in the magnitude that Boro have, but in recent weeks its been the poor finishing in front of goal that has cost them. Two weeks ago, Sunderland should of been past the finishing line and well ahead of Bolton at the Reebok but chance after chance, almost all of which fell to Kieron Richardson, went begging and they ended up scrapping a draw from the game. It was more of the same last night with some good chances being created, but not being taken against Portsmouth.  

Chelsea will want to put on a show for their soon to be departing manager Guus Hiddink, and there will be some players who will still be trying to persuade the Dutchman that they are good enough to warrant a place in the FA Cup Final side for the following weekend, so on that basis I am almost certain that Sunderland will lose to Chelsea on Sunday afternoon, but I think the other results will go for them and they will stave off relegation by one point, and sit in 17th come the final whistle, almost staving off relegation by default.  

Sunderland to lose, but to stay up by the skin of their teeth, Niall Quinn will need to invest a little bit more of his money into the club if they are to improve next season, or it could be another frustrating tale for the Makems

Result: Sunderland 0 vs 2 Chelsea
Prediction: Safety....just! 

This season has seen more twists and turns than spaghetti junction, and I'm sure that there will be more twists and more turns on the final day than we have seen for quite some time. It makes for a fantastic weekend of football to look forward to, but for fans of Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Hull and Sunderland its going to feel like the longest 90 minutes of their lives. 

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