What would have been the odds on BOTH defending champions being knocked out of the French Open on the same day? The odds might not have been that big on Ana Ivanovic going out to an in form Victoria Azarenka, but Rafael Nadal losing in four sets to Sweden's Robin Soderling is something else entirely.
Before the tournament started, even as last years tournament ended, you would have got ridiculously short odds on Nadal retaining his Paris title, for a record 5th time, but after his 6-2 6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2) defeat to Soderling, on the Philippe Chatrier court, yesterday, that is longer a possibility, opening the door for Roger Federer, and maybe even Andy Murray, to make a run to the final on Sunday.
On the women's side, Ana Ivanovic has not looked the same player since winning the title at Roland Garros last year, her one and only Grand Slam to date, a complete contrast to Nadal, who has done nothing but improve since winning his first Slam, four years ago, at the same tournament.
Victoria Azarenka, of Belarus, has been one of the most improved players on the WTA Tour this year and has some sizable scalps to her name already in her fledgling career. Her current ranking shows that yesterday's 6-2 6-3 defeat of the defending champion isn't that big of a surprise at all. Azarenka is ranked 9th in the world, Ivanovic 8th, so not a whole lot of difference there, but based on points accrued this year alone, Azarenka is the 4th best player so far in 2009, Ivanovic 12th best, so if we're getting statistical then an Ivanovic win would have been more of a shock today than the other way around.
With Nadal and Soderling, though, you can flip, twist, dilute, blow up or do all of the above with the statistics, but whatever you would of done with them, you would have found that world the number one Nadal losing to Soderling, his first loss on the clay at Roland Garros in 32 matches, a massive shock, arguably one of the biggest shocks in recent memory.
This match was always going to have some spice to it, as Soderling and Nadal are not the best of friends on the court, and Soderling is known as one of the more fiery characters on the ATP tour, but when you consider that the two of them last met just a month ago, on clay, in Rome, with Nadal winning 6-1 6-0, this has to be considered a turnaround of epic proportions.
Some people questioned whether Nadal was such a heavy favourite, going into the tournament this year, as everyone presumed, following his defeat in the Madrid Masters Final to Federer, but on that day Nadal had just finished a four hour epic the day before and was visibly spent, making Federer's arduous task that little bit easier.
As for the match against Soderling, yesterday, there was none of that, as Nadal had comfortably worked his way into the 4th round, without dropping a set, and would have been odds on favourite to beat the Swede and waltz into the Quarter Finals for the 5th year running.
Soderling, despite being seeded, has a terrible Grand Slam record, never before reaching the 4th round of a major, so you would have to feel that he would have been happy with his weeks work, but that could also be a major indication of why he played so well, knowing that he had nothing to lose, and even if he did walk off the court defeated it would have been the best Grand Slam performance of his career.
Soderling's play was of the highest quality against Nadal yesterday, with relentless ground strokes that were deep and flat and were constantly putting the Spaniard under pressure, and despite Nadal's exceptional defensive abilities, even this was too much for him.
Speaking on Eurosport last night, Mats Wilander, a former French Open champion, reckoned that if you were to mould a tennis player to beat Nadal on clay, it would have been in the form of Soderling; Tall, powerful, deep flat ground strokes, all the ingredients required to beat the master of the clay court, and all of those attributes Soderling brought to the match, and then some.
The aftermath of the defeat leaves the top half of the men's draw wide open, the half of the draw that Andy Murray is currently sat in. Federer, in the bottom half of the draw, would have to feel that if he was to ever win the French Open, and complete a career grand slam, then this would be his best chance, but as I write this, Federer is two sets to love down to Germany's Tommy Haas, and should he be defeated as well, Murray would be the highest seed left in the draw.
The last man to complete a career Grand Slam was the great Andre Agassi, who completed his collection of all four majors at the 1999 French Open, at the 11th time of asking. The 2009 French Open is Federer's 11th also, so if your a Federer fan and your looking for an omen or two, this may be one of them.
Despite the draw opening up for Murray, it is still unlikely that he will be able to pick up the trophy on Sunday, but so far this week he has shown that he has improved ten fold on the clay. His Quarter Final tomorrow against Fernando Gonzalez will be the biggest test that he has faced so far, but with his guts and determination, anything is possible, and knowing that Nadal is not going to be there come Semi Final day, may be a massive motivator for the Scot.
Clay though is one surface where rankings don't always mean everything, and there will be a lot of people a little lower down the rankings that are equal if not better than people ranked above them, when it comes to playing on clay. You still have the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Nikolay Davydenko, who are all quite verse on a clay court, and what about Andy Roddick, if you think that Murray winning the title would be a shock and that Nadal losing to Soderling was a shock, then Roddick winning here would be as if Jesus had come back to life, but he's still there and he's still fighting.
The women's draw has always been an open one, it was before Ivanovic was knocked out and still is now that she's not there, but based on the first four matches of the women's tournament its going to take something special to stop the world number one, Dinara Safina, getting her hands on her first career Grand Slam, after winning her opening four rounds 6-0 6-0, 6-1 6-1, 6-2 6-0 and 6-1 6-0.
What is known is that this French Open is shaping up to be one of the best yet, and as I've mentioned before on here I'm not a great fan of clay court tennis, but even I'm hooked and will be all the way to the final.
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